Reform UK Tops National Poll for First Time, Surpassing Labour and Conservatives

In a significant development in British politics, Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, has topped a national opinion poll for the first time. The YouGov survey, conducted on February 2-3, 2025, places Reform UK at 25%, narrowly ahead of Labour at 24% and the Conservatives at 21%.

Poll Details and Voter Shifts

The poll indicates that approximately 20% of individuals who voted Conservative in the July 2024 general election would now support Reform UK. Additionally, only 60% of previous Labour voters intend to maintain their support, with 18% expressing uncertainty or opposition to backing the party again.

Demographic Insights

Reform UK’s rise is notably pronounced among men, working-class voters, and Brexit supporters. The party has garnered 29% support among men and 30% among C2DE voters, a demographic broadly considered working class. Regionally, Reform UK leads in the North and Midlands, with 33% support in the latter. In contrast, the party holds only 13% support in London.

Leadership Favorability

Nigel Farage’s favorability has seen an uptick, with a net rating improving from -32 to -27. In comparison, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s rating has declined from -25 to -29, while Labour’s Keir Starmer holds a net favorability of -36. Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey stands at -9.

Implications for Major Parties

The emergence of Reform UK as a leading party introduces a competitive three-party dynamic, posing challenges for both Labour and the Conservatives. Whilst the upcoming local elections in May are not usually seen as anything for mainstream parties to be concerned. They will serve as a critical test for all parties as they navigate this evolving political landscape.